
Above: thousands of students at Urbana 03 considering God's reign in their lives. Below: Communion service at Urbana 06.
The United States is rapidly growing more secular, according to breathless news stories over the last week, reporting on a new study measuring changes in American religious identification over the last decade.
But the actual report is far less impressive, even a little deceptive. The authors have doubled the number of secular Americans by a sleight of hand, and buried the evidence. Let's take a look.
The main story making the news is the American Religious Identification Survey, or ARIS, published by Barry Kosmin and Ariela Keysar of Trinity College in Connecticut. Kosmin and Keysar report a doubling in the number of “Nones,” or people who claim no religion at all, between 1990 and 2008. This number corresponds with relative declines among Christian denominations, especially Roman Catholics. Relative because, according to the ARIS, all American religious identifications have increased in absolute numbers; the change is in percentage of the population.
Close inspection of the numbers, however, and the story doesn’t hold. As the ARIS itself points out, most of the decline in Christian identification is actually movement from denominational identification toward generic “Christian” identity: people who once called themselves Lutherans, for example, are now calling themselves Christians, with no other modifier. More below.
But much more importantly, as Kosmin said on a radio show in December, "up to 50-60%" of the non-religious people may in fact be "anti-clerical" believers, disgruntled with their church, and who decline to identify as religious. That means over half.
The interview with the Center for Inquiry, a federation of diverse skeptical and secular organizations, came in December, after the data had been tallied, and the money quote is around 20:00. Yet come March, Kosmin's 26-page report makes no mention of this 60%. The category is merely defined as "the non-religious, irreligious and anti-religious bloc."
The actual ARIS question was: “what is your religion, if any?” “Anti-Clerical” Christians, as they are called in the report, include those who may believe, but distrust their local branch of faith, for whatever reasons. These Christians the surveyors conflate with non-religious, irreligious, and anti-religious.
This is dishonest and irresponsible science. By quietly moving hundreds of thousands of Christians into the category of non-religious, Kosmin and Keysar have effectively more than doubled the ranks of unbelievers in America. And since, according to the report's introduction, the US Census bureau incorporates ARIS findings in the Statistical Abstract of the United States, this is dishonest research becoming foundational to public policy.
Combine the ARIS numbers across the board, there has been relatively little numeric change in American faith over the last ten years. What changes have emerged are largely in-house Christian conversations: growing instinctive Christian populist unity and anti-authoritarianism, on the one hand and widespread Catholic anger at Catholic leadership on the other. These trends are not at all surprising to followers of American faith.
They are nevertheless significant, especially because there seems to be a foggy line between believers claiming a generic Christian identity, and those disavowing religion altogether. Both are part of a larger trend of individualism in faith.
But this is not mass conversion to secularism. The study's authors have worked hard to confuse this issue, and most news sources have bought the message at face value.
Why would the authors bury this data? What is the benefit? As usual, it pays to follow the money, and listen to the authors' worldview:
The ARIS survey was released by the Institute for the Study of Secularism in Society and Culture (ISSSC); Barry Kosmin, is also in charge of the ISSSC. Elsewhere in the Center for Inquiry interview, Kosmin explains what “secular values” means:
“I don’t believe that [religious people believe in progress]. The ultimate place for many in the Judeo-Christian tradition, I assume, is Heaven—which is not here and now. What I’m int…—the secularist is interested in the here and now. It’s a matter of attention deficit. I’ve you’ve got your eye on another place, you’re not the same as a person who’s a hundred percent concerned with what’s happening at this moment.”
Secularism, on the other hand is "about how we learn from others,” while “most religions are about revelation, so you’re not learning from others, you’re learning from an other." Kosmin proceeds to dismiss religious charity as trying to play basketball and tennis at the same time.
A few years ago, Kosmin published an essay entitled The Salience of Secular Values and Scientific Literacy for American Democracy, in which he summarizes his hope:
(...) To achieve a prosperous society and a healthy, participatory democratic order based on secular values.
The only world that is safe for democracy, he argues, is a largely secular one. Religious belief is most compatible with human progress if that belief is lukewarm. This statement and similar help fill in the picture: the motivation here is not hatred, but fear. It's about the very credible fear, given the bloody stories of history, that faith can very easily become a bludgeon for suppressing religious minorities.
And what about the money? ARIS was funded in part by the Posen Foundation, a group that sponsors “educational initiatives on modern Jewish culture and the process of Jewish secularization.”
I don't want to accuse ARIS of fudging the results to please donors. But it's pretty clear that the researchers share a few core desires with their donors, including seeing democracy made safe for a threatened secular minority.
But back to the "Generic Christian" bit:
It seems to me, speaking as an insider who watches American faith, that the Christian disavowal of religion is a trend in semantics, as opposed to substance. Christians themselves are being a little dishonest here.
Here, for instance, is an ad in an evangelical youth magazine, for a Bible College that “defies religion”.
Or here: proclaiming that “Religion Kills”, a church in Georgia, with a ministry to skaters and punks.
Religion Kills? It's a little disingenuous, because everyone knows that a church is religious. But these people are certainly Christians. They quibble with the term “religion,” but, relative to the parameters of ARIS, they are anything but non-religious.
Similarly, a trend in evangelical life over the last decade has been declining commitment to denominations, in favor of the more generic “Christian” identification.
What would seem to be a move toward Christian unity, however, frustrated the ARIS surveyors, who called it a “tide of preference for self-identification as a plain ‘Christian’”.
In order to try to get some specificity to the answers if an ARIS respondent offers the answer “Christian” or Protestant” there is then a filter question which asks “What denomination is that?” (…) Over time this further probing has been successful in refining the “Protestant” response category. However, it has not succeeded in curbing the tide of preference for self-identification as a plain “Christian,” the numbers of which have doubled since 1990. This trend suggests that among those we categorize as “Other Christian” both personal preferences and collective religious labeling is in flux.
Fewer than 200,000 people favored [the “non-denominational Christian” response] in 1990 but in 2008 it accounts for over eight million Americans. Another notable finding is the rise in the preference to self-identify as “Born Again” or “Evangelical” rather than with any Christian tradition, church or denomination. (ARIS, p. 6)
To wrap up: the authors of this nationally significant, and internationally reported survey have misrepresented important changes in American religious life, and misunderstood others.
The American church is facing great challenges, to be sure, but plummeting rates of belief are not among them. More salient are soaring numbers of disaffected believers, for whom religion is a curse word. Christians who love the church have their work cut out for them: not to defend faith against atheism, but to heal the doubts among believers who've been hurt by other believers.